The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship race just became a lot easier to understand. That does not mean it became easier to win.
After years of elimination rounds and a winner-take-all championship finale, NASCAR has brought back The Chase for 2026: 16 drivers, 10 races, no eliminations, and the driver with the most points when the season ends gets the Cup.
Ryan Preece's Daytona victory reshuffled the final postseason spot and locked the field. So instead of simply copying the standings, the more useful question is: who actually looks capable of winning this thing?
The quick takeaway: Denny Hamlin starts with the strongest combination of points, speed and consistency, while Ryan Blaney looks like the clearest immediate threat. Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell form the next group capable of turning a strong 10-race run into a championship.
First, Understand the New Chase
If you stopped following NASCAR's championship rules because they became too complicated, 2026 may bring you back.
The top 16 drivers after the 26-race regular season qualify for The Chase. Then their points are reset, with the regular-season champion receiving the biggest advantage.
Seed | Starting points |
|---|---|
1 | 2,100 |
2 | 2,075 |
3 | 2,065 |
4 | 2,060 |
5 | 2,055 |
6 | 2,050 |
7 | 2,045 |
8 | 2,040 |
9 | 2,035 |
10 | 2,030 |
11 | 2,025 |
12 | 2,020 |
13 | 2,015 |
14 | 2,010 |
15 | 2,005 |
16 | 2,000 |
Denny Hamlin starts at 2,100 points, giving him a 25-point cushion over Ryan Blaney before the first Chase race begins. Unlike the previous playoff system, a bad race does not immediately put a driver on the edge of elimination. Every point matters across all 10 races.
1. Denny Hamlin — The Guy Everyone Has to Catch
If you are picking one driver today, Hamlin is the logical answer.
He enters The Chase as the No. 1 seed after controlling the regular-season standings and building enough of a margin to clinch the top spot before Daytona.
NASCAR noted that Hamlin had six finishes of seventh or better in a seven-race stretch leading into the regular-season finale, including three consecutive victories at Nashville, Michigan and Pocono.
Why he can win
No. 1 seed
25-point head start over second
Strong recent consistency
Proven race-winning speed
Joe Gibbs Racing has multiple competitive cars
The obvious question is whether he can finally convert another elite season into a Cup championship. Until he does, that history will follow him.
Power ranking: No. 1
2. Ryan Blaney — The Biggest Immediate Threat
If Hamlin is the favorite, Blaney may be the driver most capable of making that 25-point cushion disappear quickly.
He enters as the second seed with 2,075 points and is carrying real speed into the postseason.
Blaney won at New Hampshire immediately before Daytona, leading 115 laps in the victory, then won Stage 2 at Daytona before getting caught in a last-lap crash.
Why he can win
No. 2 seed
Recent race-winning form
Former Cup champion
Strong Team Penske experience in championship situations
Power ranking: No. 2
3. Tyler Reddick — The Ceiling Is Extremely High
Reddick may be the hardest driver to evaluate. Earlier in the season, he looked capable of running away from the field. Then came a rough summer. Now the speed appears to be returning.
He starts The Chase as the third seed at 2,065 points after climbing back ahead of Ty Gibbs at Daytona.
When that team is right, it can win. The concern is whether the summer proved how quickly a dominant-looking season can unravel.
Power ranking: No. 3
4. Ty Gibbs — No Longer Just the Young Guy With Potential
At some point, potential has to turn into results. Gibbs is doing that.
He enters The Chase fourth in the reset and already showed race-winning form this summer, including a victory at Iowa.
At 23, he lacks the championship experience of Hamlin, Blaney or Logano, but he has enough speed and consistency to be taken seriously.
Power ranking: No. 4
5. Chase Briscoe — The Under-the-Radar Pick
Briscoe might be the guy casual fans overlook. That would be a mistake.
He enters fifth in the Chase at 2,055 points, one spot ahead of teammate Christopher Bell.
Before consecutive weaker results at New Hampshire and Daytona, Briscoe had been on a strong run of finishes. That kind of consistency is exactly what a cumulative points championship rewards.
Power ranking: No. 5
6. Christopher Bell — Consistency Could Matter More Than Wins
Bell's 2026 season has included a strange problem: he keeps running extremely well without always finishing first.
That could actually work in this format. There are no elimination rounds requiring a driver to rescue his season with a last-minute win.
If Bell finishes near the front for 10 straight races, he can absolutely win the championship.
Power ranking: No. 6
7. Kyle Larson — Still Too Talented to Ignore
Larson is one of those drivers you hesitate to move too far down any ranking because everyone knows what happens if the car suddenly gets right.
He begins The Chase seventh. The issue has not been raw talent. It has been converting opportunities into wins and avoiding mistakes.
He does not need a full-season turnaround anymore. He needs a 10-race turnaround.
Power ranking: No. 7
8. Joey Logano — Never Ignore Him in a Championship Fight
There are drivers whose regular-season performance tells most of the story. Logano is not one of them.
He is already a three-time Cup champion and arrives at The Chase after improving significantly late in the regular season, including a Richmond victory.
The points reset moves him into ninth seed, only 65 points behind Hamlin. That is not an impossible gap across 10 races.
Power ranking: No. 8
The Rest of the Chase Field
There are eight more drivers, and the new format gives every one of them a mathematical path.
Seed | Driver |
|---|---|
8 | Chase Elliott |
9 | Joey Logano |
10 | Chris Buescher |
11 | Daniel Suárez |
12 | Carson Hocevar |
13 | William Byron |
14 | Bubba Wallace |
15 | Austin Cindric |
16 | Ryan Preece |
That does not mean the lower seeds are irrelevant. Far from it.
Ryan Preece Is the Wild Card
Preece begins 100 points behind Hamlin. That sounds enormous. Then remember what just happened.
He entered Daytona needing essentially everything to go his way, won his first career Cup points race, and grabbed the final Chase spot.
He is still a championship long shot, but one dominant month changes the conversation.
Why Chase Elliott Is Hard to Dismiss
Elliott enters eighth. His late-summer form has not matched the top group, but he has already won multiple races this season.
More importantly, Hendrick Motorsports has the resources to find speed quickly. If Elliott leaves Darlington with a strong finish, the gap to the leaders becomes manageable immediately.
What Matters More Than the Ranking
Power rankings are fun. They are not the standings.
There are four things I would watch during the opening Chase races.
1. Intermediate-track speed
A championship contender cannot have major holes in the schedule. If a team routinely struggles on 1.5-mile tracks, it becomes difficult to hide over 10 races.
2. Pit-road execution
Five seconds lost during a slow stop can turn a second-place car into a 12th-place finish. Those points accumulate.
3. Stage points
The 2026 format still awards stage points, so a driver who consistently runs near the front can build points throughout the afternoon rather than depending entirely on the finishing order.
4. DNFs
This may be the biggest one. There is no elimination round to erase the previous week's results. A crash, mechanical failure or major mistake stays on the scoreboard for the rest of the Chase.
Why the New Format Changes Race Strategy
A win now pays 55 points, up from 40 previously. NASCAR deliberately made victories more valuable while eliminating automatic postseason qualification for race winners.
That creates an interesting balance. Drivers are still heavily rewarded for going after wins, but consistency matters again.
A team cannot stumble through half the regular season, steal a win, and automatically qualify. And once The Chase begins, there is no single championship race where the entire season gets boiled down to one afternoon.
The All Guy Championship Tiers
Tier 1 — Favorites
Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney. These are the two drivers everyone else is chasing right now.
Tier 2 — Absolutely Can Win It
Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell. None would be a surprise champion.
Tier 3 — Need the Chase to Change Their Season
Kyle Larson, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott. The talent and experience are obvious. The recent consistency is less convincing.
Tier 4 — Need a Major Run
Chris Buescher, Daniel Suárez, Carson Hocevar, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric and Ryan Preece. The points system keeps them alive, but being mathematically alive and looking like a championship favorite are different things.
The Race That Matters First: Darlington
The Chase begins with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
Hamlin starts with the points advantage. Reddick has already shown speed there this season. Briscoe is the defending winner of the Southern 500.
And one difficult night at a track as unforgiving as Darlington could immediately change the championship picture.
The Bottom Line
Denny Hamlin enters the 2026 NASCAR Chase as the favorite. He earned the No. 1 seed, starts with the biggest points advantage and has been one of the most consistent cars in the field.
Ryan Blaney is the clearest immediate challenger. Behind them, Reddick, Gibbs, Briscoe and Bell all have legitimate championship cases.
But the best part of the new system is that none of this requires a flowchart.
Sixteen drivers start the Chase. They race for 10 weeks. Every point counts. Whoever has the most at the end is the champion.
Now we get to find out who can actually deliver.
Sources and Further Reading
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